Bitcoin’s rally has stalled, with ETF outflows surpassing $2.4 billion in February and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on the market.
The price of BTC recently broke below $90,000, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations and further volatility. While the long-term trajectory remains intact, analysts warn that short-term selling pressure could push prices even lower before a rebound.
The sustained ETF outflows have been a key driver of Bitcoin’s recent weakness, with issuers forced to sell BTC to meet redemptions, adding further selling pressure.
“The sell-off in Bitcoin ETFs has now extended for six consecutive days, with total outflows exceeding $2.4 billion,” said Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC. “This pressure, combined with concerns over U.S. economic policy and the recent Bybit hack, has created a challenging environment for crypto.”
The macro backdrop isn’t helping either.
With expectations shifting toward no Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025, risk appetite across financial markets has diminished. Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEx, noted that investors are reallocating capital toward lower-volatility assets, while uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies and new tariffs has further clouded the outlook.
“The Trump administration’s trade policy is adding to the tension, while uncertainty around inflation is forcing institutions to reallocate capital,” Carola said.
How low could Bitcoin go?
Analysts see key technical levels ahead, with Bitcoin currently testing support in the $89,000–$90,000 range. A further breakdown could see BTC decline to $85,000 or even $80,000, according to Jin.
However, some believe the recent correction is part of a normal market cycle. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that Bitcoin’s long-term bull run remains intact despite the short-term headwinds.
“The recent pullback doesn’t necessarily mark the end of this cycle,” Thielen told Cointelegraph. “Bitcoin remains in an accumulation phase, and a move toward $100,000 is still likely in 2024.”
Meanwhile, some crypto insiders warn of deeper downside risks. According to a report from Investors Observer, Bitcoin could dip as low as $71,000 if concerns around Trump’s trade policies and ETF liquidations persist.
“The market is pricing in higher geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which is leading some institutions to take risk off the table,” said David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Digital.
Long-term bullish, but short-term pressure remains
Despite the ongoing sell-off, institutional adoption remains strong, and Bitcoin’s position as a long-term store of value continues to solidify.
Carola remains optimistic, noting that the growing Bitcoin infrastructure—new ETFs, payment solutions, and institutional adoption—will ultimately drive higher prices. However, she believes Bitcoin needs to recover above $96,000–$100,000 to confirm a return to an uptrend.
While the current phase of ETF liquidations and risk-off sentiment may persist in the short term, analysts expect Bitcoin to regain momentum once market conditions stabilize. Whether that happens sooner or later will depend on macro trends, institutional positioning, and ETF flows in the weeks ahead.