TC Energy (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on February 14, 2025, with analysts forecasting a year-over-year decline in both earnings and revenue. While expectations are already low, the stock’s reaction will likely depend on how the actual numbers compare to these estimates.
If TC Energy beats expectations, shares could see a short-term lift, but a miss could put additional pressure on the stock. Investors will also closely watch management’s commentary for clues about future earnings stability.
Wall Street braces for weaker results
Consensus estimates suggest TC Energy’s revenue and earnings will come in lower than the same period last year, reflecting challenges in the energy infrastructure sector, including higher financing costs and softer natural gas demand.
“The key focus will be on margin pressure and capital allocation,” said Robert Kwan, energy infrastructure analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “Investors want clarity on how TC Energy plans to navigate cost inflation and balance growth with debt reduction.”
Despite these headwinds, some analysts believe cost efficiencies and asset sales could help the company offset part of the earnings decline.
“We’re looking for signals that TC Energy is making progress on deleveraging and optimizing its asset base,” said T.J. Schultz, midstream analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “That could determine whether investors see any upside beyond this quarter’s numbers.”
Stock performance and future outlook
Over the past month, TC Energy’s stock is down 3.5%, reflecting broader market caution ahead of the earnings release. Year to date, the stock is up 1.8%, as investors weigh potential pipeline expansion opportunities against ongoing balance sheet concerns.
Looking ahead, analysts remain divided.
Scotiabank and BMO Capital Markets maintain a neutral stance, pointing to limited near-term catalysts, while Goldman Sachs has an underperform rating, citing ongoing regulatory uncertainties.
The earnings report will provide a key test for investor sentiment, with management’s outlook likely playing a bigger role in the stock’s trajectory than the headline numbers alone.